Mumbai, March 20 (IANS) With the Election Commission expected to announce polls on nine seats in the Maharashtra Legislative Council shortly, the Mahayuti, with a massive surplus of 235 total votes, can comfortably win eight seats, comprising BJP five, Shiv Sena two and NCP one.
With 46 MLAs currently in the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) camp comprising Shiv Sena (UBT) 20, Congress 16 and NCP (SP) 10, the Opposition can elect one candidate, provided there is no cross-voting or defection.
Based on the current strength of the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly, to secure a victory, a candidate requires 29 first-preference votes.
However, state political circles are abuzz with one primary question whether Shiv Sena (UBT) chief and former Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray will seek another term in the Upper House.
The election will be necessary as nine members of the state council will retire on May 13.
The Congress has staked claim over one seat. The Congress Legislative Party leader Vijay Wadettiwar said the MVA partners including Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP) should leave the seat for the Congress as it had extended its support to Sharad Pawar in the Rajya Sabha elections.
Historically, members of the Thackeray family refrained from contesting direct elections. This changed in 2019 when Aaditya Thackeray won the Worli Assembly seat, becoming the first from the family to serve as a public representative.
Following the 2019 Assembly elections, the MVA coalition was formed, and Uddhav Thackeray was appointed Chief Minister despite not holding a seat in either house of the legislature.
Under constitutional mandates, Thackeray was required to become a member of the state legislature within six months. Consequently, in May 2020, he was elected unopposed to the Legislative Council. His current term is set to expire on May 13, leading to intense speculation regarding his next move. Along with that the term of other members will also expire.
Following Eknath Shinde’s rebellion, which led to his resignation as Chief Minister, Uddhav Thackeray had initially announced his intention to resign from his Legislative Council seat. However, citing the four years remaining in his term at the time, he opted to stay on.
Observers note that Thackeray has not been particularly active in the Upper House since the change in government. His attendance is typically limited to a few appearances per session. Recently, however, he participated in the discussion on the condolence motion for Ajit Pawar during the ongoing Budget Session.
Shiv Sena (UBT) spokesperson and MP Sanjay Raut had previously suggested a formula whereby Sharad Pawar will represent the alliance in the Rajya Sabha and Uddhav Thackeray in the Legislative Council. This arrangement saw Sharad Pawar elected unopposed to the Rajya Sabha with Congress support. It is widely believed that Congress support for the MVA's council seat remains contingent on Thackeray himself being the candidate.
While the Shiv Sena (UBT) is pushing for Thackeray to contest, the Shinde-led Shiv Sena may attempt to complicate his path by fielding an additional candidate. Although the MVA holds 17 surplus votes beyond the required quota, the ruling alliance may still try to ensure that Thackeray's re-election is far from a "walkover."
According to observers, the MVA's ability to re-elect Thackeray depends entirely on the 16 Congress MLAs and 10 NCP (SP) MLAs staying united. If even a small handful of these 46 MLAs are "persuaded" to vote for a Mahayuti candidate, Thackeray’s seat — once considered safe — could be pushed into a risky second-preference counting round.
If the Shinde-led Shiv Sena decides to field a third candidate (or the Mahayuti fields a ninth), they would try to seek the 19 surplus votes of the MVA. Since the Council election uses a secret ballot, the MVA’s 19 "extra" votes are the primary target for political engineering.
Against this backdrop, the final decision now rests with Uddhav Thackeray, whose choice will significantly impact the MVA's strategy ahead of the upcoming Assembly elections.
(Sanjay Jog can be contacted at sanjay.j@ians.in)
--IANS
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