Dr. Alon Ben-Meir*
New York (The Hawk): The recent verbal agreement reached between Serbia and Kosovo in Ohrid, North Macedonia obviously represents a positive development in the process of normalization between the two countries. There are however many obstacles and a considerable number of ambiguities that will make it difficult to fully implement the EU-backed deal in spite of the fact that both sides have a vested interest in seeing many of the provisions of the agreement being realized. Thus, the optimism that was expressed on March 21st by EU envoy Miroslav Lajcak that the new agreement reached between Serbia and Kosovo represents a “turning point in the process of normalization of relations” may prove to be overstated. And to suggest that the agreement represents “de facto recognition” of Kosovo by Serbia, as stated by Prime Minister Kurti, is rather wishful thinking.
That said, the EU and the US can mitigate many of the following obstacles provided they take specific measures to enshrine legality into the agreement on the one hand and clearly articulate what benefit Serbia and Kosovo can derive by implementing the agreement and what the consequences will be if they don’t.
The many hurdles that the two sides will encounter include: Russia’s continuing efforts to impede Serbia from forging strong ties with the West while seeking to destabilize the Balkans; Vucic’s strong commitment to maintain Serbia’s close ties to its Slavic ally Russia; his desire to please the far-right groups in his country which view Kosovo as the cradle of the Serbian state and Orthodox religion; the considerable lack of clarity as to how to ensure a suitable level of self-management for the Serbian community in Kosovo; and the absence of a clear and enforceable mechanism to implement the various provisions of the agreement in a timely fashion. Finally, due to the fact that the agreement is not signed, any successive government in either Serbia or Kosovo may find certain provisions in the agreement to be counterproductive or inconsistent with their political objectives and will not necessarily honor the agreement if it remains not legally binding.
Since the implementation of the agreement largely depends on the goodwill of Serbia and Kosovo to execute it faithfully, it remains up to the EU to exert constant pressure on both sides to live up to their commitments. This will prove to be difficult unless the EU works with the US to solidify the agreement and put on the table with clarity the ‘stick and carrots’ should either or both parties fail to fulfill their part of the agreement.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell stated that Serbian President Alexander Vucic and Prime Minister Albin Kurti “have reached an agreement on how to do it…This means practical steps on what has to be done, when, by who and how.” He emphasized that other than the direct benefit that both countries would gain, the agreement would bolster “the stability, the security and the prosperity of the whole region… and it will become an integral part of their respective European Union path.”
The essential provisions of the agreement
The agreement stipulates that Serbia will no longer block Kosovo from seeking membership in the UN and other international organizations, and both countries will be obligated to develop good-neighborly relations and ‘respect’ (not recognize) their independence and territorial integrity. The two sides would also exchange permanent missions which will be established at the respective government seats.
In addition, Pristina is committed to establishing specific arrangements and guarantees to ensure an appropriate level of self-management for the Serb-majority areas in Kosovo. And finally, both countries agreed to create a Joint Monitoring Committee, chaired by the EU. Although Borrell admitted that the agreement had fallen short of the “more ambitious and detailed” agreement, the problem here is exactly that – that the devil is in the details – and the question will be what measures the EU will take to ensure implementation other than the monitoring mechanism.
Legitimizing the agreement
To begin with, it is critically important that that the US fully support the agreement and use its weight to ensure that Kosovo’s applications to join international organizations including the UN are accepted. Second, it would be absurd for the EU to limit itself to monitoring; it must be proactive and see to it that all the provisions in the agreement are implemented in a timely fashion. Third, it is critical that before Kurti begins to implement the self-management for the Serb-majority areas in Kosovo, Vucic begins in earnest to fulfill his commitments, especially because he is known to rescind promises he made in the past. Fourth, the EU should register the agreement with the UN Secretariat to lend it both legitimacy and enforceability. As Kurti rightfully stated, “now it is up to the EU to make it internationally binding.” Fifth, it is essential that the EU and the US make it clear that they stand firmly behind the agreement to minimize Russia’s and China’s efforts to undermine the agreement to serve their strategic objectives.
Providing incentives
The EU and the US must be clear about the benefits that both Serbia and Kosovo can derive if they fulfill their obligations as stipulated by the agreement. For Kosovo, it is particularly important that as it faithfully implements the various provisions of the agreement, Kosovo sees a clear path to EU integration, persuades the five EU states (Cyprus, Spain, Greece, Romania, and Slovakia) to recognize Kosovo which is essential for Pristina to also apply for NATO membership, and negotiates in earnest visa liberalization for Kosovars. Finally, Kosovo must see that the EU provides financial aid to both countries. To that end, the EU must live up to its pledge to organize a donor conference within 150 days to set up an investment and financial aid package for Kosovo and Serbia. I believe however that some financial aid should be provided to both countries by the US and the EU much sooner, provided they begin the process of normalization immediately.
The agreement wisely specifies that both countries commit to improving their ties, and recognizes that any failure to honor their commitment to the agreement will have direct negative consequences for their EU accession along with the financial aid they receive from the EU.
Unlike any previous agreements going back to 2011, this agreement stands a better chance of succeeding, provided of course that the EU in particular not only monitors the progress being made but exerts any pressure necessary to compel both parties to implement the agreement in its entirety in good faith. Indeed, in the final analysis, both countries want to integrate into the EU but since the process of integration is long and winding, it is critical for the EU to link the speed and the scope of the normalization of relations between the two countries to concrete steps that clearly advance their integration process into the EU. This along with the legalization of the agreement internationally will be the hallmark of this new agreement that differentiates it from any previous ones.
With the best intentions, however, it will still take still several years before Serbia recognizes Kosovo’s independence—probably not before Putin leaves the political scene. President Vucic has said this time and again. Neither the EU nor Kosovo should have any illusion that mutual recognition is around the corner.
*Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a retired professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He taught courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies for over 20 years.

 The recent verbal agreement reached between Serbia and Kosovo in Ohrid, North Macedonia obviously represents a positive development in the process of normalization between the two countries. There are however many obstacles and a considerable number of ambiguities that will make it difficult to fully implement the EU-backed deal in spite of the fact that both sides have a vested interest in seeing many of the provisions of the agreement being realized. 

Is The New Agreement A Turning Point For Serbia And Kosovo?

Belgrade (Serbia): President Murmu who reached Serbia in the final leg of her two-nation visit on Wednesday said that Serbia has emerged as a new film destination for Indian filmmakers. Addressing the Indian diaspora at the Serbian capital, Belgrade, on Wednesday, Droupadi Murmu said that she has been told Indian movies have been popular in Serbia. "I am told Indian movies have been popular in Serbia, and Serbia has emerged as a new film destination for Indian filmmakers. Many Serbians also have a deep affinity for India's spiritual heritage, including Yoga. I am also told that Ayurveda is recognized here as a system for cure and treatment," she said. She further said that India and Serbia have always shared an understanding of each other's core interests. President Murmu said she was looking forward to meeting with the Serbian minister and government officials during her visit. The President interacted with the diaspora and friends of India at a Community Reception hosted by the Ambassador of India to Serbia, Sanjiv Kohli, in Belgrade. Addressing the gathering, the President said that India and Serbia are ancient lands. In the modern era, India's relations with Serbia were particularly defined in the context of the Non-Aligned Movement, she noted, adding that India and Serbia have always shared an understanding of each other's core interests. She added that based on this bilateral foundation, she would look forward to interacting with the Serbian leadership during her visit, the office of the President of India said in a release. Expressing her gratitude to the friends of India in Serbia and the love and adulation that she has received, the President underlined that their contribution to building friendship and understanding between Serbia and India is crucial. Pointing out India's role as a first responder, a voice of the global south and a responsible development partner, President Murmu said Serbia has been a valuable partner in India's sustainable development cooperation programmes. "Each of these aspects reflects our quest towards becoming a leading power," she added. President Droupadi Murmu reached Belgrade, Serbia, earlier on Wednesday, in the final leg of her two-nation visit to Suriname and Serbia. The ongoing visit by President Murmu marks the first such visit by an Indian head of state to Serbia. In a special gesture, she was received by the Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, and accorded a guard of honour at the Nikola Tesla Airport in Belgrade. From the airport, the President travelled to Gandijeva Street where he paid his respects at the bust of Mahatma Gandhi. —ANI

President Murmu who reached Serbia in the final leg of her two-nation visit on Wednesday said that Serbia

'Serbia Emerged As Film Destination For Indian Filmmakers': President Murmu

New Delhi: President Droupadi Murmu on Thursday said that India and Serbia have huge potential for trade and investment. Addressing the India-Serbia business forum in Belgrade, President Murmu said that both nations have had friendly relations since the days of the Non-Aligned Movement, and therefore, it is now time to build and strengthen the economic partnership as well as trade ties. She expressed confidence that trade between the two countries could grow by around $1 billion. Currently, bilateral trade between India and Serbia is at $320 million. President Murmu is in Serbia on the last leg of her two-nation visit. She is on a three-day state visit to the east European country till June 9. The President thanked her Serbian counterpart, Aleksander Vucic, for making the business forum possible. Earlier, Murmu also had a meeting with Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic, who called on her. Meanwhile, addressing the event, President Murmu highlighted that the Indian economy is among the fastest growing economies in the world, which is on its way to become the third largest before the end of the decade. "We have seen significant success in the auto and auto-components sector, health care, pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, renewable energy, textiles and apparel, space, information technology, telecom, fintech, and financial services," she said further. The President also expressed happiness about recovery shown by the Serbian economy from the Coronavirus pandemic. "I am told that Serbia has also attracted more than half of the FDI received by the Western Balkans region since 2018. Road and rail investments are also taking place at a healthy pace, to integrate Serbia into wider European networks. Yours is a country of intelligent, hard-working people driven by innovation and ideas. Serbia can become an effective gateway for Indian companies to access broader markets in Europe and Eurasia," she said.—IANS

 President Droupadi Murmu on Thursday said that India and Serbia have huge potential for trade and investment

‘India, Serbia Have Huge Potential For Trade & Investment’: Prez Murmu

*Dr. Alon Ben-Meir
It is naïve to assume that given the current geopolitical conditions in the Balkans and the psychological dimension of the conflict between Kosovo and Serbia that a resolution to their conflict can be found unless the EU and the US develop a clearly articulated cost-and-benefit strategy cushioned by a realistic process of reconciliation
New York (The Hawk): The recent demonstrations following municipal elections in the three Serb-majority municipalities in northern Kosovo, and the events that followed, strongly suggest how raw the nerves are between Prime Minister Kurti and ethnic Serbs in Kosovo, as well as between Kurti and Serbia’s President Vucic. They demonstrate how far apart they remain, and how distrustful they are of each other. The unfortunate developments that occurred before and after the demonstrations include: the dispatch of police by Kurti to quell the demonstrations; Kurti’s refusal to sign off on the Association of Serb Municipalities; Vucic’s refusal to sign the Franco-German agreement even though he agreed verbally to abide by its provisions; Vucic’s call on Kosovar Serbs to boycott the elections and “resist the occupation;” and his dispatch of a Serbian military contingency to the border with Kosovo. The violent flareup that ensued, in which 30 KFOR peacekeepers were injured, prompted intense criticism by the EU and the US of Kurti’s misguided action. To maintain stability in the Balkans and make tangible progress in the negotiations between the two sides, the EU and the US must consider the factors that continue to weigh heavily on the thinking and attitudes of both Vucic and Kurti. First, there is a need to understand and address the psychological dimension of the conflict that continues to haunt them. Second, there should be a clear framework that spells out the cost and benefit if they negotiate in good faith and deliver on the promised concessions they make. And finally, the EU must demonstrate their keenness to facilitate the process of integration and spell out what Vucic and Kurti would gain to advance their integration into the EU, to which both strongly aspire. Before delving deeper, it is necessary to have a better grasp of the character of these two leaders, their strength and weakness, what they want to achieve, and how they want to be perceived by their own publics, their allies, and their foes. Kurti is a nationalist for whom Kosovo’s independence is sacrosanct and cannot under any circumstances be compromised. This explains his resistance to the Association of Serb Municipalities and their potential implications for Kosovo’s territorial integrity. Even though he was imprisoned during the war, he was well aware of the atrocities and war crimes committed by Serbia against Albanian Kosovars and he still suffers from psychological scars the war inflicted on him and his countrymen. He resents Vucic’s continuing refusal to account for thousands of missing Albanian Kosovars believed to be buried in mass graves. Moreover, Kurti does not trust Vucic to deliver on any promises he makes, which explains his reluctance to follow through on commitments he made, including several of the provisions in the Franco-German plans. He still has an anti-American streak from the time he was in the opposition, albeit he recognizes the indispensable role of the US as the guardian of Kosovo’s security and independence. Vucic has a no less complicated personality and set of hang-ups. He is a nationalist to the core who plays at the public sentiment. He staunchly refuses to recognize Kosovo’s independence as he stated in his appearance on Happy TV: “The Serbian leadership will not sign a capitulation, will not support the membership of the self-proclaimed Republic of Kosovo in the United Nations, and will not recognize its independence.” He hardly ever negotiates in good faith, as was demonstrated by his first accepting the Franco-German plan in Ohrid, North Macedonia on March 18 but then refusing to sign it, which he in fact stated weeks in advance. “As for signing something (in Ohrid),” he said, “I’m not planning anything.” He consistently encouraged ethnic Serbs in Kosovo to defy the central government as he called on them to boycott the elections and not abide the authorities in Pristina. Moreover, although he professes to seek integration into the EU, he does not share Western values. He is authoritarian, and a denier of war crimes committed by the Serbian army against Albanian Kosovars. He has maintained close ties with Russia, Serbia’s traditional Slavic ally, especially because Belgrade still depends heavily on Russia for military hardware and training and because there are strong religious ties between the Serbian and Russian Orthodox Churches.   He relies on Moscow’s opposition to Kosovo’s independence in the UN and is fearful of Putin’s ire should he toe the Western line, particularly now as the Ukraine war is raging. Finally, he refused to join the sanctions against Russia, and is unlikely to change his position as long as Putin is in power.  What the EU should do The EU with the full support of the US should develop a new strategy that would induce both Kosovo and Serbia to cooperate and accept the eventuality of mutual recognition through a process of reconciliation and intermediate agreements in which both countries develop a vested interest. The EU needs to provide a clear horizon for both Kosovo and Serbia based on reciprocity and a full adherence to any agreed-upon issue.  In dealing with Kurti, the EU must first make it clear that integration into the bloc is a process that requires full cooperation with the EU and full adherence to the rules and agreements that bind the EU together. By dispatching the police to Northern Kosovo in an extremely sensitive context and time without consultation with the EU, he ignored the advice of the EU to reduce the tension and maintain calm, which suggests to the EU that he is not a reliable partner.  Second, since the EU and the US are the guardians of Kosovo’s security and independence, Kurti must demonstrate greater trust in their judgment as neither wants to compromise Kosovo’s independence and territorial integrity. Kurti should sign off on the Association of Serb Municipalities without any further delay. In addition, he should begin to implement the Franco-German accord and put Vucic rather than himself on the defensive.  Third, as a prospective EU member, Kurti should demonstrate considerable sensitivity regarding the West’s concerns over the stability of the Balkans, especially now due to the war in Ukraine and Putin’s determination to do everything he can to destabilize the region and engage the West in another volatile front.  Fourth, however distrustful Kurti is of Vucic, he must learn to deal with him and demonstrate to the EU that he will always negotiate in good faith. He should not allow any failure in the negotiating process to be attributed to him while enhancing his credibility with the EU, which is central to advancing Kosovo’s integration.  Fifth, Kurti ought to pay far greater attention to his domestic affairs. He ought to progressively meet the EU’s socio-economic, educational, cultural, and human rights standards. He should weed out corruption, encourage foreign investments, create jobs to prevent the brain drain which is hampering Kosovo’s growth and progress, invest in education, healthcare, infrastructure, and housing, and tend to the needs of the poor, especially children.  Since Kurti has cast Kosovo’s fate with the EU, he must now demonstrate that Pristina is worthy of EU membership, because, regardless of when that might happen, its voice will be equal to that of France, Germany, Italy, and every other member state. This will be an incredible feat for Kosovo, which also carries an awesome responsibility. His standing with the EU and the US is currently questionable; the burden is on him to prove that he is trustworthy and has the leadership quality, the acumen, and the skills to live up to the call of the hour.  The EU on its part should offer Kosovo a framework for its prospective integration by reciprocating Pristina’s commitment to follow EU guidelines and condition the process of integration to the progress that Kosovo makes on all fronts. The areas where Kosovo wants to realize important gains and where the EU and the US can play a critical role include the following:  Membership in international organizations; Recognition of its independence by the five EU states that have not yet recognized Kosovo—Romania, Cyprus, Greece, Spain, and Slovakia; Opening a dialogue with the EU in connection with the integration process; Exerting pressure on and/or persuading Vucic to fully implement the Franco-German agreement, which is central to the reconciliation process between the two countries. In dealing with Vucic, the EU is fully aware that unlike Kurti, by virtue of his connection to Putin, Vucic is not as free to act transparently to advance Serbia’s integration with the EU. But given Serbia’s aspiration to become an EU member state, he has to come around and accept the inevitability of coexistence with an independent Kosovo.  Vucic must stop defying and denying Kosovo’s independence publicly, knowing that its independence is irreversible. He must stop instigating ethnic Serbs in Kosovo to rebel against Pristina as he has recently done following the elections in the three Serb-dominated municipalities.  He should slowly and gradually distance himself from Russia and be reminded of Moscow’s growing international isolation, its military failures in Ukraine, and its much-diminished global stature and power; it is becoming an uncertain ally on whom he cannot depend.  Moreover, Vucic should actively persuade the Serbs in the north of Kosovo to return to the institutions and play a constructive role to stabilize the area. He should sign and fully adhere to the Franco-German agreement to enhance his credibility, which presently is in tatters. Vucic should also should take steps to normalize relations with Kosovo by reaching interim agreements regarding water distribution from Lake Ujmani and mining at Trepça Mine, expanding trade, and encouraging cultural ties, student exchanges, and more.  Although these activities do not constitute recognition of Kosovo, they will prepare the Serbian public psychologically for such an eventuality, especially once Putin departs the political scene.  In return, the EU should offer Serbia a roadmap that would lead to full integration and open up a dialogue towards that end. The EU should also develop and agree on a quid pro quo so that Vucic will know what he might receive in return for any concession he makes. This includes compliance to the provision of any accord, verbal or otherwise, especially the Franco-German agreement which is crucial to bring an end to the conflict between Serbia and Kosovo.  Since for the EU and the US, solving the Serbian-Kosovar conflict is critical to the stability of the Balkans, they should change the dynamic of the conflict between Belgrade and Pristina by offering a roadmap to integration with the EU that both countries aspire for.  It is now up to Vucic and Kurti to either squander the prospect of becoming an integral part of the European community, or work together, seize the opportunity, and enjoy the growth, prosperity, and security accorded to all member states of the EU.
*Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a retired professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He teaches courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.

The recent demonstrations following municipal elections in the three Serb-majority municipalities in northern Kosovo

The US And The EU Need A New Roadmap To Solve The Serbia-Kosovo Conflict

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir* New York (The Hawk): It’s time for the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo to come to their senses and accept certain realities that neither can change. They are stuck and should recognize that their conflict will end only through mutual understanding of each other’s aspirations and respect for their sovereignty and territorial integrity.  I condemn in the strongest terms the killing of a Kosovo police officer in the most recent clash that sadly took place in northern Kosovo. Unfortunately, these types of incidents may reoccur due to the fact that tensions between the two sides are heightened as a result of a lack of understanding and distrust between Kosovo and Serbia. In order to prevent this kind of tragic event from reoccurring, it is critical that both sides make every effort to reduce the tension and face certain realities that neither side can change. To further advance the understanding between the two sides, it is critical that both Serbia and Kosovo accept certain realities on the ground that have been created since Kosovo declared its independence. The realities that are not subject to change The first is the reality that the northern municipalities are occupied by a majority of ethnic Serbs. Living in a democracy gives them the right to follow their way of life. Neither Pristina nor Belgrade can change this reality and nothing either side or any other power suggests to the contrary can defy this reality. Moreover, given that both Serbia and Kosovo want to join the EU, they must also adhere to the Treaty of Lisbon (in essence, the EU’s constitution), which enshrines respect for human rights of minorities and opposes any territorial change by “ensuring the territorial integrity of the State.” None of the above however, should or could compromise Kosovo’s sovereignty as long as the ethnic Serbs adhere to Kosovo’s constitution. Second, Vucic must realize that the eventual recognition of Kosovo’s independence is not negotiable now or at any time in the future. However long he may drag his feet on this issue, it is only a question of time when he or his eventual successor will come to this conclusion. Third, although Prime Minister Kurti recognizes that there are nearly 50,000 ethnic Serbs living in the north who are Kosovo citizens, the establishment of the Association of Serb Municipalities, which was agreed upon several years ago, must take place to give them the opportunity to live as they see fit, as long as Belgrade will not under any circumstances exert executive power there. To suggest that the establishment of this Association would de facto sever these municipalities from Kosovo is completely misplaced. Indeed, anyone who thinks that the ethnic Serbs in these areas are stooges operating on behalf of Belgrade is also mistaken. In reference to the recent violence, the US Ambassador to Kosovo, Jeff Hovenier, stated that “This was not a group of citizens who spontaneously came together to voice their concerns. This was a trained and organized group. This implies that there is some sort of structure behind them, given the training and equipment.” And while Kosovo’s Interior Minister Xhelal Svecla stated that a significant number of heavy weapons, explosives, and uniforms were found after the attack in northern Kosovo, I do not agree with his conclusion that this is necessarily a preparation for a massive assault to come. The ethnic Serbs in the area know that if such an attack against Kosovo police were to occur, Kurti would be right to, and certainly capable of, sending in significant forces to quell it. Under such a scenario, Kurti would receive the full support of KFOR. Furthermore, Serbia itself is not planning, as some suggest, to wage an open war against Kosovo, as it knows full well it would have to confront NATO forces, which is simply a non-starter and definitely is not in Serbia’s long-term interest. More often than not, these ethnic Serbs in northern Kosovo demonstrate a strong affinity to Serbia because of the natural association they have with their brethren in that country. And thus, anything they do or say is immediately attributed to Serbia’s direct influence, which only strengthens rather weakens their ties to Belgrade. This can change if they feel they are being heard as Kosovars. In fact, as far as I know, they want to be free just as much from Belgrade as from Pristina, once they are given the opportunity. Reciprocal measures Even though Kosovo agreed several years ago to the establishment of the Association of Serb Municipalities, if the Kurti government is to move toward its implementation, he should expect at the same time some reciprocal steps taken by Belgrade to demonstrate good faith. This may include, for example, allowing Pristina to join other international organizations, recognize its passports and other state-level documents, etc., all of which Serbia previously committed to. The EU’s indispensable role Contrary to the views of Prime Minister Kurti, who claims that EU special envoy Miroslav Lajcák has “lost neutrality,” EU mediation remains indispensable. To suggest that the EU is no longer neutral and is operating on the behest of Belgrade is again completely unfounded. The EU is and continues to be committed to Kosovo’s sovereignty and national security. What the EU would like to achieve is putting both countries on the path of mutual recognition. To that end, as I indicated, compromises on both sides must be made, and that should begin by Belgrade and Pristina agreeing on the above-mentioned reciprocal measures. The EU needs to exert pressure on Vucic, not just Kurti, to fulfil his obligations. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell and Lajcák need to focus on these two initial steps and ensure that both sides commit to their simultaneous implementation at a mutually agreed upon timeline. Once this is done, they’ll be able to build on such initial steps and take further mutual measures that would also aid both sides in moving ever closer to mutual recognition and to eventual integration with the EU. Necessary mitigating steps None of the above can take place unless both sides first reduce the heightened tension by demonstrating their willingness to resume negotiations in good faith, knowing full well that there is no substitute to negotiations to reach any agreement. To begin with, a new election should be scheduled in the north. As everybody knows, the first election was boycotted by ethnic Serbs, and the current mayors were elected by a mere 5 percent. This in and of itself has created tremendous resentment, and it cannot be rectified unless new elections are scheduled, as soon as possible. In addition, both sides must end their acrimonious public narrative which otherwise only deepens their distrust and disdain for the other, poisons the political and social atmosphere, and drives both sides to take extreme positions to safeguard their interests, which further complicates their conflict. Furthermore, they should heed the EU’s recommendations, not only because they need EU support, but also because the EU is the only institution that can help settle their conflict and provide the incentive of integration that Serbia and Kosovo aspire for while moving the process of reconciliation forward. Finally, Vucic and Kurti need to enhance their credibility; Vucic must stop his public pronouncement that Serbia will never recognize Kosovo, and Kurti needs to accept that the Serb-majority municipalities in the north have the right to live in accordance with their culture, religion, and tradition, which are consistent with democracy and Kosovo’s constitution under the umbrella of association. Peaceful coexistence and mutual recognition between Kosovo and Serbia is not one of many options, but the only option. Their conflict will not end on a zero-sum basis where one party benefits at the expense of the other, but only on a non-zero-sum basis where both sides mutually benefit to ensure the sustainability of any agreement. In the final analysis, both leaders must demonstrate statesmanship and the courage to act, without which both will leave the political scene worse off than when they assumed power.
*Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a retired professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He teaches courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.

It’s time for the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo to come to their senses and accept certain realities that neither can change

Serbia-Kosovo Deadlock Requires A Reality Check

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir*  New York (The Hawk): It’s time for the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo to come to their senses and accept certain realities that neither can change. They are stuck and should recognize that their conflict will end only through mutual understanding of each other’s aspirations and respect for their sovereignty and territorial integrity.  I condemn in the strongest terms the killing of a Kosovo police officer in the most recent clash that sadly took place in northern Kosovo. Unfortunately, these types of incidents may reoccur due to the fact that tensions between the two sides are heightened as a result of a lack of understanding and distrust between Kosovo and Serbia. In order to prevent this kind of tragic event from reoccurring, it is critical that both sides make every effort to reduce the tension and face certain realities that neither side can change. To further advance the understanding between the two sides, it is critical that both Serbia and Kosovo accept certain realities on the ground that have been created since Kosovo declared its independence. The realities that are not subject to change The first is the reality that the northern municipalities are occupied by a majority of ethnic Serbs. Living in a democracy gives them the right to follow their way of life. Neither Pristina nor Belgrade can change this reality and nothing either side or any other power suggests to the contrary can defy this reality. Moreover, given that both Serbia and Kosovo want to join the EU, they must also adhere to the Treaty of Lisbon (in essence, the EU’s constitution), which enshrines respect for human rights of minorities and opposes any territorial change by “ensuring the territorial integrity of the State.” None of the above however, should or could compromise Kosovo’s sovereignty as long as the ethnic Serbs adhere to Kosovo’s constitution. Second, Vucic must realize that the eventual recognition of Kosovo’s independence is not negotiable now or at any time in the future. However long he may drag his feet on this issue, it is only a question of time when he or his eventual successor will come to this conclusion. Third, although Prime Minister Kurti recognizes that there are nearly 50,000 ethnic Serbs living in the north who are Kosovo citizens, the establishment of the Association of Serb Municipalities, which was agreed upon several years ago, must take place to give them the opportunity to live as they see fit, as long as Belgrade will not under any circumstances exert executive power there. To suggest that the establishment of this Association would de facto sever these municipalities from Kosovo is completely misplaced. Indeed, anyone who thinks that the ethnic Serbs in these areas are stooges operating on behalf of Belgrade is also mistaken. In reference to the recent violence, the US Ambassador to Kosovo, Jeff Hovenier, stated that “This was not a group of citizens who spontaneously came together to voice their concerns. This was a trained and organized group. This implies that there is some sort of structure behind them, given the training and equipment.” And while Kosovo’s Interior Minister Xhelal Svecla stated that a significant number of heavy weapons, explosives, and uniforms were found after the attack in northern Kosovo, I do not agree with his conclusion that this is necessarily a preparation for a massive assault to come. The ethnic Serbs in the area know that if such an attack against Kosovo police were to occur, Kurti would be right to, and certainly capable of, sending in significant forces to quell it. Under such a scenario, Kurti would receive the full support of KFOR. Furthermore, Serbia itself is not planning, as some suggest, to wage an open war against Kosovo, as it knows full well it would have to confront NATO forces, which is simply a non-starter and definitely is not in Serbia’s long-term interest. More often than not, these ethnic Serbs in northern Kosovo demonstrate a strong affinity to Serbia because of the natural association they have with their brethren in that country. And thus, anything they do or say is immediately attributed to Serbia’s direct influence, which only strengthens rather weakens their ties to Belgrade. This can change if they feel they are being heard as Kosovars. In fact, as far as I know, they want to be free just as much from Belgrade as from Pristina, once they are given the opportunity. Reciprocal measures Even though Kosovo agreed several years ago to the establishment of the Association of Serb Municipalities, if the Kurti government is to move toward its implementation, he should expect at the same time some reciprocal steps taken by Belgrade to demonstrate good faith. This may include, for example, allowing Pristina to join other international organizations, recognize its passports and other state-level documents, etc., all of which Serbia previously committed to. The EU’s indispensable role Contrary to the views of Prime Minister Kurti, who claims that EU special envoy Miroslav Lajcák has “lost neutrality,” EU mediation remains indispensable. To suggest that the EU is no longer neutral and is operating on the behest of Belgrade is again completely unfounded. The EU is and continues to be committed to Kosovo’s sovereignty and national security. What the EU would like to achieve is putting both countries on the path of mutual recognition. To that end, as I indicated, compromises on both sides must be made, and that should begin by Belgrade and Pristina agreeing on the above-mentioned reciprocal measures. The EU needs to exert pressure on Vucic, not just Kurti, to fulfil his obligations. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell and Lajcák need to focus on these two initial steps and ensure that both sides commit to their simultaneous implementation at a mutually agreed upon timeline. Once this is done, they’ll be able to build on such initial steps and take further mutual measures that would also aid both sides in moving ever closer to mutual recognition and to eventual integration with the EU. Necessary mitigating steps None of the above can take place unless both sides first reduce the heightened tension by demonstrating their willingness to resume negotiations in good faith, knowing full well that there is no substitute to negotiations to reach any agreement. To begin with, a new election should be scheduled in the north. As everybody knows, the first election was boycotted by ethnic Serbs, and the current mayors were elected by a mere 5 percent. This in and of itself has created tremendous resentment, and it cannot be rectified unless new elections are scheduled, as soon as possible. In addition, both sides must end their acrimonious public narrative which otherwise only deepens their distrust and disdain for the other, poisons the political and social atmosphere, and drives both sides to take extreme positions to safeguard their interests, which further complicates their conflict. Furthermore, they should heed the EU’s recommendations, not only because they need EU support, but also because the EU is the only institution that can help settle their conflict and provide the incentive of integration that Serbia and Kosovo aspire for while moving the process of reconciliation forward. Finally, Vucic and Kurti need to enhance their credibility; Vucic must stop his public pronouncement that Serbia will never recognize Kosovo, and Kurti needs to accept that the Serb-majority municipalities in the north have the right to live in accordance with their culture, religion, and tradition, which are consistent with democracy and Kosovo’s constitution under the umbrella of association. Peaceful coexistence and mutual recognition between Kosovo and Serbia is not one of many options, but the only option. Their conflict will not end on a zero-sum basis where one party benefits at the expense of the other, but only on a non-zero-sum basis where both sides mutually benefit to ensure the sustainability of any agreement. In the final analysis, both leaders must demonstrate statesmanship and the courage to act, without which both will leave the political scene worse off than when they assumed power.    *Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a retired professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He teaches courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.

It’s time for the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo to come to their senses and accept certain realities that neither

—Dr. Alon Ben-Meir
A couple of months ago, in an interview with Al Jazeera, Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti claimed that the September attack on Kosovo police by Serbian gunmen in northern Kosovo was planned by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić in an effort “to destabilize” Kosovo in the hopes of starting a war. Such a statement does not serve the public’s interest well or produce political or strategic gains for him. Not only that, Serbia's President Vučić has nothing to gain by waging a war against Kosovo; he stands only to be humiliated by NATO, which is committed to Kosovo’s national security.  Whereas Vučić continues to placate Putin, he values Serbia’s relationship with the US and would not undertake such a reckless act. As he recently stated, “For us, it is of the utmost importance that peace in the region is not disturbed and Serbia will continue to behave responsibly and contribute to stability in the Balkans,” adding that Serbia and the US will work to preserve Serbian-American relations. Moreover, Vučić knows that ultimately, Serbia’s alliance with the US and the EU, rather than Russia, will best serve Belgrade's long-term national interests.  Vučić wants to project power and sensible leadership to strengthen himself domestically while demonstrating to the West that he is a responsible leader who will always endeavor to maintain regional stability. He stated that “for us, it is of great importance that the peace in the region is not broken and that Serbia will continue to act responsibly and contribute to stability in the Balkans.” Nevertheless, he promised to continue purchasing arms from China and other countries, including anti-aircraft systems, fighter planes, and drones, and likes to flex his muscles as he has multiple times moved a small contingency of Serbian troops to Kosovo’s border in what is considered by NATO as hostile actions.  One need not take Vučić’s words for granted; a closer look at the Balkans’ overall political and military environment suggests that no country in the region wants to heighten the tension, which may accidentally precipitate a violent conflagration. NATO's decision in early October to dispatch 200 British soldiers and 130 Romanian soldiers to reinforce its peacekeeping mission in Kosovo is not such a massive power meant to deter Belgrade. Vučić fully understands the high stakes for him if he steps out of line.  The purpose of the NATO forces augmentation in Kosovo, which also includes the purchase of drones and anti-tank missiles, mainly from Turkey, is to keep tensions in the Western Balkans under control, as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated.  In that regard, the US decision to sell 240 portable Javelin missile systems that can destroy tanks and other armored vehicles was designed to send a message to Russia’s President Putin that the US is fully engaged and committed to improving the security of its European partners, which is critical for both political and economic stability in Europe.  For the ordinary Kosovar, though, when put together, Kurti’s warning about a potential war with Serbia, the dispatch of more EU forces, and the US sale of Javelin missiles could amount to a looming war with Serbia. In fact, the last thing that Vučić wants is a war against Kosovo that would immediately draw NATO into the fray—a war that he will not only severely lose but would also irreversibly damage Serbia’s prospect of joining the EU. This is something that Vučić wants to avoid at all costs.  Although Prime Minister Kurti is duty-bound to ensure Kosovo’s national security, he should view it in the context of NATO’s overall commitment to the stability of the Balkans and how other conflicts might impact that. Even though the turmoil in the Middle East is not likely to spill over into the Balkans, the US is rightfully demonstrating in words and deeds that it takes the security and the development of events in the Balkan region very seriously and will act promptly to prevent any miscalculation by a would-be enemy, especially Russia.  The US’ sale of Javelin missiles to augment Kosovo’s military forces will not be the last shipment of military hardware; other supplies of military equipment will follow it as the Kosovo Security Forces aims to transition into a professional military force by 2028 to meet NATO standards.  For this reason, it will be prudent for Kurti to take what Vučić says or does with some reservation. Vučić is not interested in violently engaging Kosovo as he is extremely keen that his losses will far outweigh any gain. Therefore, Kurti's suggestion that Serbia is planning for war against Kosovo does nothing but cause unnecessary public tension and stress, destabilize the economy, and create a rush to stock unperishable goods, often precipitating inflation and creating financial distress and social tension.  Unless Kurti’s warning of a potential war against Serbia is purposely designed to strengthen his political standing and rally the public around him in an election year, which I do not believe is the case, he should know by now that Vučić speaks loudly but carries a small stick.

Serbian President Vučić accused of planning Kosovo police attack. NATO reinforcement, Javelin missile sale, and geopolitical tension analyzed for regional stability.

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