Dr. Alon Ben-Meir
It is time for Kosovo’s Prime Minister Kurti to wake to the reality in which he finds himself and demonstrate the statesmanship and the vision to do the right thing for his country’s security, stability, and progress
New York (The Hawk): The recent flareup in Northern Kosovo brought about as a result of the local elections in the Serb-majority municipalities and the demonstration by ethnic Serbs that followed was unnecessary and most unfortunate. It should not have come to this unfortunate state where US Special Envoy for the Western Balkans, Gabriel Escobar, issued what amounts to an ultimatum demanding that Prime Minister Kurti immediately de-escalate the conflict, institute a new election, and implement the Ohrid Agreement or otherwise face consequences. Kurti seems to ignore the fact that without the full support and the backing of the US and the EU, Kosovo does not have strong enough legs to stand on. By defying the US and the EU’s attempts to normalize relations between Serbia and Kosovo, Kurti has shown severe shortsightedness which he must now correct because he must maintain good standing with his most critical allies who are committed to Kosovo’s independence, well-being, and security.
It is one thing the protect and safeguard the territorial integrity and independence of the country, as Kurti indeed has an obligation to do; it is another thing however to be fixated on four Serb-majority municipalities in the northern part of Kosovo as if the future of Kosovo is entirely depended on their unconditional subordination to the central government.
The recent elections offer a good example of Kurti’s obsession with these municipalities. The ethnic Serbs made it clear nearly two months ago (right or wrong) that they intended to boycott the elections. Nevertheless, Kurti went ahead with the elections in which only 4 percent of the population voted, resulting in the election of four Albanian mayors. Although technically the election was fair and free, it did not reflect the wishes of the overwhelming majority of the population in these areas.
What made matters worse is Kurti’s insistence that the newly-elected mayors assume their duties in the official government buildings, which further heightened the tension, precipitating the demonstration of ethnic Serbs. Kurti added fuel to the fire by dispatching the police to quell the demonstrations which turned violent and ended up causing injuries to nearly 50 KFOR peacekeepers.
Gabriel Escobar was correct to state that: “We’re seeing that choices are being made despite our partnership, and that is a signal to us, we can’t not accept that as a signal. At some point, when we want to re-establish that coordination and partnership with this [the Kurti] government, we stand ready. Because we always stand with the people of Kosovo, that doesn’t mean that we have to stand with an individual who doesn’t share that instinct to cooperate and to coordinate.”
This, of course came on the heel of the nearly tireless negotiations for the Municipalities Association agreement which Kurti refused to honor, albeit there is nothing in the agreement, which I carefully examined, that compromises Kosovo’s independence in any shape or form. But for Kurti, who is zealous about Kosovo’s independence and suspicious even of the US’ unmitigated commitment to Kosovo’s sovereignty, still balks at what the US and the EU want to achieve for Kosovo. Afterall, if Kurti casts Kosovo’s fate with the West, he must demonstrate that he is a worthy and reliable partner on whom they can count to play his role to maintain calm and cooperate in every which way in the process of normalization with Serbia.
This does not mean by any interpretation that the US and the EU favor Serbia over Kosovo; to the contrary. For them, Serbia is a significant party to this whole debacle, they seek its cooperation because Belgrade exercises significant influence over the ethnic Serbs in Kosovo and because they seek to distance President Vucic as much as possible from Russia’s Putin. This is particularly important at this juncture when the Ukraine war is raging and Putin is doing all he can to destabilize the region.
The total sum of this whole unfortunate development is that Kurti has now diminishing control over the four municipalities while frustrating his most valuable allies to a point that led the US to bar Kosovo from further participation in the NATO defense exercise “Defender 23.” If nothing else, this sad episode has only further distanced Kosovo’s integration into the EU to the chagrin of its population, whose future well-being is intertwined with the EU—a fact that Kurti, in spite of his occasional disdain toward the West, must not forget. Prime Minster Kurti, who told CNN last Tuesday that he would not surrender the country to a Serbian “fascist militia,” completely mischaracterized the reality on the ground. To further state that “we cannot have a privileged minority because Belgrade is lamenting for the loss of Kosovo in 1999 when NATO intervened to stop the genocide of the regime of (Slobodan) Milosevic,” is another misreading of what must be done now to defuse the tension and restore amicable and trusting relations with both the EU and the US. Now it is time for Kurti to wake up to the reality and accept without any reservation the three demands that the US and EU emissaries Escobar and Lajcak have clearly and ambiguously stated. He should immediately schedule new elections, withdraw the police forces to maintain calm, and execute the Association of Municipalities Agreement without any further delay. Indeed, restoring full cooperation with the US and the EU is central to Kosovo’s future as an independent country.
To be sure, Kurti has now the opportunity to show statesmanship and a clear vision as to where he wants to lead Kosovo. His country’s fate rests with the West and he must stop short of nothing to nurture and carefully guard Kosovo’s relations with the only allies that he can count on.
*Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a retired professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He teaches courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.

The recent flareup in Northern Kosovo brought about as a result of the local elections in the Serb-majority municipalities

Kurti’s Confrontation With The United States Is Alarming

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir*
New York (The Hawk): Over the past two years I have written several opinion pieces about the situation in Kosovo and how successive governments have in fact failed their people. But when Prime Minister Kurti assumed power, I felt gratified that Kosovo finally elected a prime minister who would rise to the occasion and lift his country from its 12 years of doldrums. With the best intensions however, Kurti’s priorities did not fall in line with what the public wants and needs. He became obsessed with what Serbia’s President Vucic says or does, and in particular he wanted to assert his power on the ethnic Serbian community in Kosovo as if his country’s true independence rests entirely on this community pledging allegiance to Kosovo’s flag. I still believe that Kurti can change course and put his country on a trajectory consistent with his vision to make Kosovo an independent and prosperous democracy if he only reprioritizes his domestic and foreign agenda. There are five facts that Kurti seems to ignore which could have dramatically changed the course of Kosovo for the better. EU and US Guarantors of Kosovo’s Independence To begin with, the EU and the US are ultimately the guarantors of Kosovo’s independence and would not offer any solution to Kosovo’s problems, including its conflict with Serbia as well as with its ethnic Serbs, that would under any circumstances compromise Kosovo’s independence and territorial integrity. After all, these two powers together made it possible for Kosovo to become a sovereign state, and ensure its independence and long-term security. It would be strategically self-defeating if they were to renege on their commitment. Kurti has demonstrated shortsightedness by not following their advice, and instead of strengthening the critical ties between his country and the EU-US he rebuffed them, especially in connection with the need for new elections in the predominantly ethnic Serb-majority areas in North Kosovo. The most recent election was boycotted by the Kosovar Serbs; only five percent of the total population of the area voted and elected Albanian mayors – one of whom received only 100 votes – who certainly do not represent the vast majority of the population in those areas in spite of the fact that the election was free and fair, as everyone knew well in advance of elections that the Serbian community would boycott them. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated in response to the unrest, “We strongly condemn the actions by the Government of Kosovo that are escalating tensions in the north and increasing stability.” It is perplexing as to why the Prime Minister of Kosovo, a country that depends almost exclusively on the US’ and EU’s political backing, economic aid, and security guarantees would defy their recommendations in connection with the majority-Serb municipalities in Kosovo when in fact collaboration and cooperation with the EU is central to Kosovo’s integration. This has led US figures, including US Ambassador to Serbia Christopher Hill, to state bluntly about Kurti: “We have some very fundamental issues with him on whether we can count on him as a partner.” The Association of Serb Municipalities, which was agreed upon several years ago, should have been implemented by Prime Minister Kurti soon after he assumed power. To be sure, instead of working hand-in-hand with the EU and enjoying its support, the EU ended up imposing severe sanctions on Kosovo while setting back the process of integration. Kosovo Central to West’s Balkans Strategy Second, Kurti does not appear to appreciate the fact that for the US and the EU, Kosovo is part and parcel of their overall strategic interest in the Balkans, especially now when the Ukraine war is raging and Russia’s President Putin will do everything in his power to destabilize the region. And given the religious, historic, and cultural affiliation between Russia and Serbia, it is obvious that Putin would exploit that relationship to the maximum extent to serve his immediate interests. Thus, for the US and the EU to reduce Putin’s influence on Vucic, they need to accommodate Vucic, of course only up to a point, without compromising Kosovo’s national security. This is not to suggest that Vucic’s refusal to recognize Kosovo and his lack of cooperation are acceptable, but alienating him unnecessarily is counterproductive to both Kosovo’s national and the US-EU’s strategic interests. Serb-Majority Municipalities Third, Kurti has and continues to devote inordinate time to the majority-Serb municipalities as if subordinating them to his own political doctrine will secure Kosovo’s independence. Starting with the dispute over license plates, to the discord over the Association of Serb Municipalities, to the ill-fated elections in the Serb-majority areas among some other frivolous issues did nothing but distract him from his primary task of attending to his people’s needs. Indeed, regardless of how far Serbia might go to prompt the Kosovar Serbs to engage in any kind of anti-government activities, they cannot threaten Kosovo’s independence in any meaningful way. Although Vucic will not admit it, he knows only too well that he cannot now or at any time in the future seize the Serb-majority area in Kosovo, and certainly he will not realize his claim that Kosovo is an integral part of Serbia. Alienating the EU Fourth, it is rather puzzling that for a prime minister who ardently seeks to integrate Kosovo into the EU, he is alienating the very Union he wants to join while failing to take all the necessary measures to meet the EU’s socio-economic, political, and democratic standards. From the day he rose to power, Kurti should have invested most of his time, resources, and political sway to drastically improve the living standard and quality of life of every ordinary Kosovar. He should have focused on much of what he promised to do if elected. This includes economic development, by attracting domestic and foreign investments to provide job opportunities and prevent the brain drain which is affecting every industry and eroding Kosovo’s social fabric. In the first half of the year, the government spent only an abysmal 18 percent (€150 million) of its allocated €844 million budget for capital investments. The country’s brain drain is growing; ten years ago 15,000-20,000 Kosovars left the country each year in search of better job opportunities, in the last five years, the number has nearly doubled to 30,000 per year. Kurti also promised to improve the educational system by building new schools, increasing pay for teachers, and creating easy access to up-to-date textbooks; modernize much of the crumbling infrastructure; provide better and more affordable healthcare; improve housing conditions; and certainly, weed out corruption which allows officials to squander huge amounts of financial resources while engendering Kosovars’ deep distrust towards their government. Serbia’s EU Bid Fifth, although Vucic does not want to alienate Russia because of the aforementioned reasons, Vucic still wants Serbia to integrate into the EU. He knows that Serbia’s future prosperity and growth rests with the EU and to achieve that, he will have to meet the EU’s standards by fully adhering to democratic principles and human rights and elevating socio-economic conditions in the country. But recognizing Kosovo’s independence remains a central condition for Serbia’s admission into the EU. Since the EU has a vested interest in admitting the Balkan states into the EU and preventing Russia from establishing a strong foothold in any of the Balkan states, the EU needs to create a conducive atmosphere to achieve that objective. For this reason, the EU wants to create an even playing field that would allow Serbia to distance itself from Russia while gaining some ground toward EU integration. Emmanuel Macron warned on Monday that “France and Germany have made their promises on visa policies and other economic issues, which will be reviewed if both parties do not behave responsibly. We must be very careful in this regard, especially when the stability of the Western Balkans is at risk.” But for that to happen, Kosovo must also play its part. That is, the less Kurti alienates Belgrade and the more cooperative he becomes with Serbia, the more he puts Vucic on the ‘defensive.’ This is by no means an appeasement of Serbia at the expense of Kosovo, because in the final analysis both countries must resolve their conflict if they seek admission into the EU. I believe that Kurti might have what it takes to change course and focus on what the people are yearning for. They want jobs, they want opportunities, they want to grow and prosper, they want to feel safe and secure, they want to be free to express themselves without harm, and they want to be heard. This is a wake-up call and Kurti will do well to listen before it’s too late.
*Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a retired professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He teaches courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.

Over the past two years I have written several opinion pieces about the situation in Kosovo 

A Wake-Up Call For Kosovo’s PM Kurti

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir*
 Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti is still wallowing in his obsession with Serbia and seems to never understand that Kosovo’s independence, security, and well-being do not depend on what Serbia’s President Vucic says or does but only on the commitments of the EU and the US to safeguard Kosovo’s security and independence New York (The Hawk): It is baffling as to why a politician who considers himself to be savvy and who is committed to his country’s national interest manages to alienate his best friends, best supporters, and best protectors, without whom Kosovo cannot survive as an independent and secure country. Perhaps Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti ought to take a little time and reflect on why and under what circumstances the EU would conceivably undermine Kosovo’s national interests only to placate Sebia. For Kurti to believe that the EU wants to accommodate Serbia at his expense is both misguided and counterproductive. He should know by now that if he wants Kosovo to join the EU sometime in the near future, he must work hand-in-hand with the EU in every respect and avoid any conflict that could hinder his country’s integration process. Although EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell blamed Kosovo for failing to implement a deal with Serbia on normalizing relations, stating that Kurti “was not ready to move forward,” Kurti needs to understand that the blame is not unfounded. To begin with, Kurti needs to know that Serbia’s ultimate recognition of Kosovo can be achieved only in stages based on reciprocal steps taken by Belgrade and Pristina. Kurti is wrong to claim that “We will either implement the whole deal entirely or we will not implement only what Serbia wants. This logic is dead.” The problem is that both Serbian President Vucic and Kurti are demanding that the other take the first step, which is a fallacious argument that leads nowhere. Vucic wants to see progress first on the creation of the Association of Serb Municipalities, which will encompass 10 Serb-majority municipalities in Kosovo, while Kurti wants Serbia to make the first move by taking steps towards officially recognizing its independence, which Vucic refuses. In this respect, however, the onus falls squarely on Kurti’s shoulders, who thus far has reneged on the establishment of the Association of Serb Municipalities, which had been agreed to and should have been implemented long ago. In addition, as Borrell reiterated, Kurti “fell very short” by not taking steps to de-escalate the tensions by holding new elections in the predominantly Serb-majority municipalities in northern Kosovo, as the original elections were boycotted by the Serb community. Borrell is right to suggest that Kurti needs to enact new elections to demonstrate good faith efforts to fulfill what must be done without any further delay or pre-condition. Second, if Kurti’s goal is to integrate Kosovo into the European community, he must improve his ties with the EU, which could open the door wider for the five EU countries that have not recognized Kosovo as yet—Cyprus, Spain, Romania, Greece, and Slovakia—to do so, which is a must before Kosovo can join the bloc. He ought to demonstrate that he is ready and willing to work with the EU to resolve every conflicting issue between Kosovo and Serbia and not readily dismiss the advice offered by Borrell. Moreover, Kurti must compromise when required to reach agreements and not assume positional bargaining that leaves no room for negotiations. Borell was right to warn that the impasse between Kosovo and Serbia was hurting both countries’ desire to one day join the EU. He further added that “At the end of the day, those who suffer more for the inability of their leaders to stay true to their words are the citizens.” Thus, by resolving the issue of the Association of Serb Municipalities and scheduling a new election, it will allow the EU to lean heavily on Vucic to reciprocate. For example, it could pressure Serbia to stop blocking the implementation of the 2013 and 2015 Energy Agreements. That said, Serbia has nevertheless joined the Crimea Platform with the aim of reversing Russia’s 2014 annexation of the peninsula. This clearly suggests that Serbia’s long historic alliance with Russia is waning as Belgrade aspires to integrate with the EU while gradually cutting ties with Russia. To be sure, without reciprocal steps, both Kosovo and Serbia are risking their European futures. Third, Kurti must remember that there is extensive concern in the West that Russia could use Belgrade to reignite ethnic conflicts in the Balkans, especially now that the war in the Ukraine is raging without an end in sight. Kurti cannot, indeed must not, take this matter lightly. The EU and the US are preoccupied with Putin’s design to destabilize the Balkans and try to use Vucic to do his bidding. To prevent that from happening, the EU needs to draw Serbia into its orbit. It is foolish to assume that the EU’s efforts in this respect will harm Kosovo in any shape or form. To the contrary, the closer Serbia comes to the EU, the better it is for Kosovo as this would invariably lead to a more conducive atmosphere that would speed up the normalization process between Kosovo and Serbia as well as the recognition of the former by the latter. It is time for Kurti to come down to earth and stop taking positions totally inconsistent with what reality dictates. The notion that the EU is acting against Kosovo’s interest is totally misguided. For Kurti to say in a press briefing in Pristina that “There was a clear positioning of the mediator [Miroslav Lajcak] against Kosovo...They have gone a long way in attacking the future of Kosovo,” is truly absurd. He must recognize his mistakes and resolve to take any and all steps necessary to advance Kosovo toward becoming an integral part of the EU. Kurti’s current approach has done nothing but significantly damage his relations with the EU to a point where the latter was forced to impose sanctions on Kosovo, which demonstrates how deeply their bilateral ties have sunk. If Kurti continues to travel on this dead-end road, the EU will have little choice but to wait until the next government in Kosovo is formed and leave Kurti with nothing to show for. Indeed, instead of advancing the integration process into the EU to which all Kosovars are yearning for, he further distanced Kosovo from the EU to the utter dismay and disappointment of his people. This may well be the legacy he will leave behind.
*Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a retired professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He teaches courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.

It is baffling as to why a politician who considers himself to be savvy and who is committed to his country’s national interest manages

Kurti—EU Tensions Are Most Damaging To Kosovo’s National Interests

—Dr. Alon Ben-Meir
A couple of months ago, in an interview with Al Jazeera, Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti claimed that the September attack on Kosovo police by Serbian gunmen in northern Kosovo was planned by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić in an effort “to destabilize” Kosovo in the hopes of starting a war. Such a statement does not serve the public’s interest well or produce political or strategic gains for him. Not only that, Serbia's President Vučić has nothing to gain by waging a war against Kosovo; he stands only to be humiliated by NATO, which is committed to Kosovo’s national security.  Whereas Vučić continues to placate Putin, he values Serbia’s relationship with the US and would not undertake such a reckless act. As he recently stated, “For us, it is of the utmost importance that peace in the region is not disturbed and Serbia will continue to behave responsibly and contribute to stability in the Balkans,” adding that Serbia and the US will work to preserve Serbian-American relations. Moreover, Vučić knows that ultimately, Serbia’s alliance with the US and the EU, rather than Russia, will best serve Belgrade's long-term national interests.  Vučić wants to project power and sensible leadership to strengthen himself domestically while demonstrating to the West that he is a responsible leader who will always endeavor to maintain regional stability. He stated that “for us, it is of great importance that the peace in the region is not broken and that Serbia will continue to act responsibly and contribute to stability in the Balkans.” Nevertheless, he promised to continue purchasing arms from China and other countries, including anti-aircraft systems, fighter planes, and drones, and likes to flex his muscles as he has multiple times moved a small contingency of Serbian troops to Kosovo’s border in what is considered by NATO as hostile actions.  One need not take Vučić’s words for granted; a closer look at the Balkans’ overall political and military environment suggests that no country in the region wants to heighten the tension, which may accidentally precipitate a violent conflagration. NATO's decision in early October to dispatch 200 British soldiers and 130 Romanian soldiers to reinforce its peacekeeping mission in Kosovo is not such a massive power meant to deter Belgrade. Vučić fully understands the high stakes for him if he steps out of line.  The purpose of the NATO forces augmentation in Kosovo, which also includes the purchase of drones and anti-tank missiles, mainly from Turkey, is to keep tensions in the Western Balkans under control, as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated.  In that regard, the US decision to sell 240 portable Javelin missile systems that can destroy tanks and other armored vehicles was designed to send a message to Russia’s President Putin that the US is fully engaged and committed to improving the security of its European partners, which is critical for both political and economic stability in Europe.  For the ordinary Kosovar, though, when put together, Kurti’s warning about a potential war with Serbia, the dispatch of more EU forces, and the US sale of Javelin missiles could amount to a looming war with Serbia. In fact, the last thing that Vučić wants is a war against Kosovo that would immediately draw NATO into the fray—a war that he will not only severely lose but would also irreversibly damage Serbia’s prospect of joining the EU. This is something that Vučić wants to avoid at all costs.  Although Prime Minister Kurti is duty-bound to ensure Kosovo’s national security, he should view it in the context of NATO’s overall commitment to the stability of the Balkans and how other conflicts might impact that. Even though the turmoil in the Middle East is not likely to spill over into the Balkans, the US is rightfully demonstrating in words and deeds that it takes the security and the development of events in the Balkan region very seriously and will act promptly to prevent any miscalculation by a would-be enemy, especially Russia.  The US’ sale of Javelin missiles to augment Kosovo’s military forces will not be the last shipment of military hardware; other supplies of military equipment will follow it as the Kosovo Security Forces aims to transition into a professional military force by 2028 to meet NATO standards.  For this reason, it will be prudent for Kurti to take what Vučić says or does with some reservation. Vučić is not interested in violently engaging Kosovo as he is extremely keen that his losses will far outweigh any gain. Therefore, Kurti's suggestion that Serbia is planning for war against Kosovo does nothing but cause unnecessary public tension and stress, destabilize the economy, and create a rush to stock unperishable goods, often precipitating inflation and creating financial distress and social tension.  Unless Kurti’s warning of a potential war against Serbia is purposely designed to strengthen his political standing and rally the public around him in an election year, which I do not believe is the case, he should know by now that Vučić speaks loudly but carries a small stick.

Serbian President Vučić accused of planning Kosovo police attack. NATO reinforcement, Javelin missile sale, and geopolitical tension analyzed for regional stability.

The Hawk

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Kurti’s Confrontation With The United States Is Alarming

Inam Ansari

The Hawk

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Kurti’s Confrontation With The United States Is Alarming

Inam Ansari

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