New Delhi: Human-caused climate change made April's record-breaking humid heatwave in India, Bangladesh, Laos, and Thailand at least 30 times more likely, a rapid attribution analysis by an international team of leading climate scientists as part of the World Weather Attribution group said on Wednesday.
The study also concludes that the high vulnerability in the region, which is one of the world's heatwave hotpots, amplified the impacts.
In April, parts of south and southeast Asia experienced an intense heatwave, with record-breaking temperatures that passed 42 degrees Celsius in Laos and 45 degrees in Thailand. The heat caused widespread hospitalisations, damaged roads, sparked fires and led to school closures.
The number of deaths remains unknown.
Across the world, climate change has made heatwaves more common, longer, and hotter. To quantify the effect of climate change on the Asian heatwave, scientists analysed weather data and computer model simulations to compare the climate as it is today, after about 1.2 degrees of global warming since the late 1800s, with the climate of the past, following peer-reviewed methods.
The analysis looked at the average maximum temperature and maximum values of a heat index for four consecutive days in April across two regions, one covering south and east India and Bangladesh, and a second one including all of Thailand and Laos.
The heat index is a measure that combines temperature and humidity and reflects more accurately the impacts of heatwaves on the human body.
In both regions, the researchers found that climate change made the humid heatwave at least 30 times more likely, with temperatures at least 2 degrees hotter than they would have been without climate change. Until overall greenhouse gas emissions are halted, global temperatures will continue to increase and events like this will become more frequent and severe.
In India and Bangladesh, events like the recent humid heatwave used to occur less than once a century on average; they can now be expected around once in five years, and if temperature rise reaches 2 degrees -- as will happen within around 30 years if emissions are not cut rapidly -- events like this will occur, on average, at least once every two years.
In Laos and Thailand, the scientists found that an event like the recent record humid heatwave would have been nearly impossible without the influence of climate change, and it is still a very unusual event that can only be expected around once in 200 years, even with the influence of human-caused climate change.
But if temperature rise reaches 2 degrees, it will become much more common, occurring about once in 20 years.
While high temperatures are the norm in south and southeast Asia, early heatwaves such as this one are particularly damaging. People who are most exposed to the sun and vulnerable populations are routinely the worst impacted. The current patchwork of heatwave solutions must be improved to account for inequalities and existing vulnerabilities, the scientists said, adding that heat action plans should be inclusive and comprehensive, and ensure access to basic services, such as water, electricity and healthcare.
The study was conducted by 22 researchers as part of the World Weather Attribution initiative, including scientists from universities and meteorological agencies in India, Thailand, Australia, Denmark, France, Germany, Kenya, the Netherlands, the UK, and the US.
Chandra Sekhar Bahinipati of the Indian Institute of Technology, Tirupati, said: "Although we have recognised heatwaves as one of the deadliest disasters, particularly in countries like India, Bangladesh, and Thailand, there is a lack of knowledge with respect to who is vulnerable, loss and damage estimation, household coping mechanisms, and the most effective heat action plans.
Except for the human casualties, other economic and non-economic loss and damage indicators are not documented.
"This creates a dearth in assessing the extent of risk, who is vulnerable, and also operationalising any adaptation planning." —IANS

Human-caused climate change made April's record-breaking humid heatwave in India, Bangladesh

India's April Heatwaves Were '30 Times More Likely' Due Of Climate Change: Scientists

Varanasi: Located on the banks of the Holy Ganges, Varanasi witnessed scorching summer as the temperature soared above 40 degrees Celsius. Health experts advised the residents to stay hydrated to battle the blazing heat wave. While talking to ANI, the Chief Medical Officer of Varanasi, Sandeep Chaudhary said, "Drink lots of water, eat proper nutritious food while moving out of the house. Make sure to cover your hands with full sleeves and face with scarves. Stay hydrated as much as possible. Drink lemonade, buttermilk or 'Shikanji' (spiced lemonade) instead of aerated drinks." A heatwave is a period of abnormally high temperatures, more than the normal maximum temperature that occurs during the summer season in the North-Western parts of India, according to National Disaster Management Authority. Heatwaves typically occur between March and June, and in some rare cases even extend till July. As of now, schools have been closed in Maharashtra, Odisha and West Bengal due to heat wave conditions. In northern states, the temperature is soaring but there is respite due to Western disturbances from time to time. Heat waves affect the Northern states of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, and Rajasthan generally in the month of May and June. While talking to ANI, Senior Consultant Physician &amp; Endocrinologist from Madhukar Rainbow Children's Hospital Dr Sharwari Dabhade Dua, said, "A steady rise in temperature and environmental changes has led to very hot and humid summers since past few years. This rise is only getting worse with coming years." "Our body has the ability to maintain the temperature via dissipation of heat, in the form of perspiration. However, extreme heat and humidity affect this acclimatization leading to heat stroke," Dr Dua added. "Certain pre-existing conditions like high blood pressure, heart failure, obesity, diabetes, and kidney disease can cause a higher risk of heat stroke. Children and old age people get affected more. In such cases, adequate hydration with electrolytes like sodium and proper air conditioning is advised to cool the body temperature. Minor symptoms need to be watched before they get severe. Immediate hospitalisation is advised in case of loss of consciousness, chest pain, decreased urination and severe fatigue," Dr Dua further stated. Meanwhile, the Director of Lok Nayak Jai Prakash Narayan Hospital (LNJP) Hospital, Dr Suresh Kumar said, "These days the temperature is reaching near 40 degrees and when the temperature crosses or is near 40 degrees. There is a lack of water in the body which is called dehydration. It is important that we take as much liquid as possible, like coconut water, juice, lassi, and more water etc." "Whenever you are going out of the house these days, keep a water bottle with you, as well as keep your head covered while going in the sun. And try not to stay in the Sun for too long as it can lead to dehydration. Also, it can cause problems like heat stroke, and dizziness," Dr Kumar further said. "Due to lack of water in the body, sweating stops and there is a deficiency of sodium, potassium etc. in the body, which affects our brain and heart," the doctor added. —ANI

 Located on the banks of the Holy Ganges, Varanasi witnessed scorching summer as the temperature soared above 40 degrees Celsius

As Varanasi Witnesses Blazing Heatwaves, Health Experts Advise Precautions

Zurich (Switzerland): The old, the ill, and the poor are especially vulnerable to the devastating effects of heatwaves like the one we are presently experiencing. One of the deadliest natural disasters in recent memory, the 2003 heatwave that saw temperatures in Europe exceed 47.5 degrees Celsius claimed between 45,000 and 70,000 lives in a few weeks. The emergency rooms in the cities were overflowing, the forests burnt, and the harvests in the fields perished. Around 13 billion dollars worth of costs were incurred globally. However, compared to other climate-related events, the public continues to be less informed about the dangers of heat waves. According to a study that was written in the journal Nature Communications, this is an issue. Heatwaves similar to the one we experienced in 2003 might become the new standard in the coming years. Epidemiology and climate modelling combined: Researchers from the Institute for Environmental Decisions at ETH Zurich collaborated with an international group of epidemiologists on the study. Since 2013, they have been systematically collecting data on daily heat-related excess mortality for 748 cities and communities in 47 countries in Europe, Southeast Asia, Latin America, the U.S. and Canada. The researchers used this dataset to calculate the relationship between the average daily temperature and mortality for all 748 locations. From this, they were able to establish each location’s ideal temperature, where excess mortality is at its lowest. In Bangkok, for example, this value is 30 degrees Celsius, in São Paulo 23, in Paris 21 and in Zurich 18 degrees Celsius. Physically plausible weather extremes modelled: Every tenth of a degree above this ideal value increases excess mortality. “Not all heat is the same,” explains Samuel Lüthi, lead author of the study and doctoral student under David Bresch, Professor for Weather and Climate Risks. “The same temperature has a completely different impact on heat-related excess mortality in the populations of Athens and Zurich.” This depends not only on the temperature, but also on physiology (acclimatisation), behaviour (long siestas in the middle of the day), urban planning (green spaces versus concrete), the demographic structure of the population, and the local healthcare system. Using this ideal value, the researchers calculated how excess mortality would develop with an average global temperature increase of 0.7 degrees (the value in 2000), 1.2 degrees (the value in 2020), 1.5 and 2 degrees. They used five particularly powerful climate models, known as SMILEs (single-model initial-condition large ensembles). “We ran the same model up to 84 times, with slightly different weather conditions each round. That gave us a multitude of possible weather systems that are likely to occur if there is a certain amount of CO2 in the atmosphere,” explains Lüthi. The researchers then coupled this data with an epidemiological model to calculate the corresponding heat mortality. Previous projections of heat-related mortality were mostly based on calculations that used one climate model over a specific period of time. “Our method allows us to quantify extremes in the climate system much more effectively and reduce uncertainties that arise from the idiosyncrasies of certain models.” Using supercomputers, Lüthi has calculated the impact of over 7,000 years of physically possible weather phenomena on heat-related mortality. The corresponding dataset is more than 1 terabyte in size. Up to 15 per cent of deaths are heat-related: The results show that the risk of heatwaves with high excess mortality has already increased dramatically over the past 20 years. “The excess mortality of a hot summer like 2003 used to be considered an extreme, once-in-a-century event. We now expect it to occur once every 10 to 20 years,” says Lüthi, “or, in a world that is 2 degrees warmer, every two to five years in many places.” Heat mortality figures that were considered highly improbable in 2000 (once every 500 years), will occur 14 times every 100 years in a 2-?degree scenario. Assuming no adaptation to the heat, the probability of mortality during such extreme heatwaves will increase by a factor of 69. Regions that are particularly at risk of escalating heatwaves include the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the U.S., the Pacific coast of Latin America, the Middle East, Southeast Asia and the Mediterranean region. Even in moderate climate scenarios, a hot summer in these regions can result in ten per cent of all deaths in a country being heat-related. Paris was particularly affected by the heatwave in 2003. The figure at that time was five to seven per cent; that means in the French metropolis alone, the heatwave led to the premature deaths – from dehydration, heatstroke and heart attack – of around 2,700 people. “According to our calculations, up to 15 per cent of deaths in Paris could be heat-related in future,” says Lüthi. Europe is among the hotspots – particularly southern Europe. There are two factors that come into play here: temperatures here are rising twice as fast as the global mean, and the population is disproportionately older. A worrying outlook: “The results frightened me,” says the 30-?year-old climate scientist. “While I was working on the study, I always tried to look behind the figures and see the real lives of people who are affected by the changes. It’s worrying.” Particularly, as he points out, because the assumptions underlying the modelling are actually on the conservative side. The study assumes that the global average temperature is on track to increase by a maximum of 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius, but with greenhouse gas emissions at their current levels, the more likely figure is 2.6 degrees. Future scenarios do not take into account the projected population growth, migration to cities and the increase in the number of older people – all factors that are likely to increase heat-related excess mortality even further. The study also lacked epidemiological data for Africa and India, both regions heavily affected by the climate crisis and poverty. As the researchers state, the results underline the urgency for action. In order to at least curb increasing heat waves, the most important step is to phase out fossil fuels as quickly as possible, Lüthi asserts. The study shows that although the risk is already high at 1.5 degrees, it is still significantly lower than at 2 degrees. However, society can also partly adapt to higher temperatures to reduce the impact of future heat waves. “We should now prepare and manage the unavoidable while avoiding the unmanageable at all costs," Lüthi recommended. —ANI

The old, the ill, and the poor are especially vulnerable to the devastating effects of heatwaves 

Heatwaves Are Getting More Deadly And Frequent

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, and India’s sweltering summers constitute a worrying trend rather than only a seasonal annoyance. Millions of people in the nation are affected by climate change, which is having an irreversible negative influence on their health, way of life, and environment as temperatures rise to record heights.  Having a better understanding of the heatwave phenomenon: in recent times, heatwaves, which are defined as extended periods of abnormally high temperatures, have become more frequent in India. Not only temperature spikes, but these extreme weather occurrences cause prolonged, scorching heat waves that strain communities to breaking point.  ROOTCAUSES: India is seeing an increasing number of heatwaves due to a number of variables. Heat is trapped in densely populated places due to the “Heat Island effect,“ which is a result of urbanisation, deforestation, and industry. Furthermore, the problem is made worse by climate change, which intensifies heat waves and modifies weather patterns.  Human cost: Heat waves have far-reaching effects that go beyond just being uncomfortable; they seriously jeopardise people’s health and well-being. Heat-related ailments like heatstroke, dehydration, and heat exhaustion are more common in vulnerable positions, which include the elderly, children, and outdoor labourers. Regrettably, there has been a national rise in heat-related fatalities associated with heatwaves.  Economic Repercussions: Heatwaves have a significant negative impact on the economy, impacting everything from agriculture to tourism. Severe heatwaves frequently result in crop failures, water scarcity, and livestock losses, endangering livelihoods and food security. Furthermore, businesses that depend on outside labour must deal with decreased productivity and increased workplace risks.  Impact on the Environment: Heatwaves also have an adverse effect on the environment, worsening wildfires, aggravating drought conditions, and endangering biodiversity. Long-term heat stress causes ecosystems to struggle, which disrupts natural habitats and creates ecological imbalances.  Various adaptation and mitigation techniques are being implemented by India to respond to the growing threat posed by heatwaves. These include infrastructure upgrades targeted at increasing resilience and decreasing susceptibility, urban green areas, heat action plans, and early warning systems.  Conclusion: India’s growing heatwave pattern serves as a grim reminder of the pressing need to address climate change. It is critical to give priority to initiatives aimed at reducing greenhouse emissions, creating resilient communities, and shielding the most vulnerable from the effects of intense heat as temperatures rise. We can only hope to address this urgent issue and ensure a sustainable future for future generations by working together and demonstrating a strong sense of commitment.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, and India’s sweltering summers constitute a worrying trend rather than only a seasonal annoyance

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India's April Heatwaves Were '30 Times More Likely' Due Of Climate Change: Scientists

Inam Ansari

The Hawk

Tag : Heatwaves

India's April Heatwaves Were '30 Times More Likely' Due Of Climate Change: Scientists

Inam Ansari

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