Tag : Dangerously

    Considering Catastrophe: High-Impact, Low-Probability Climate Scenarios 'Dangerously Underexplored'

    Low-Probability Climate Scenarios
    Inam Ansari
    August2/ 2022

    Cambridge (Massachusetts): A new "Climate Endgame" agenda is needed, according to researchers, who also claim that far too little research has been done on the mechanisms by which rising temperatures might pose a "catastrophic" risk to society and humanity. For instance, if temperature rises are worse than many predict or cause cascades of events we have yet to consider, or indeed both. The world needs to start preparing for the possibility of a "climate endgame." The research led by Luke Kemp and findings were published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). The researchers argue that assessing catastrophic risks is necessary in order to have a better chance of preventing them. "Irreversible and potentially catastrophic risks caused by human induced climate change must be factored into our planning and actions. If there is a red thread in science over the past 30 years it is this; the more we learn about how our planet functions, the higher is the reason for concern", Johan Rockstrom explains, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts and a co-author. "Tipping points are coming closer, not only because we are emitting more greenhouse gases, but also that we increasingly understand that our planet is more fragile and a more sophisticated oganism with feedbacks and interactions that quite abruptly can shift its functions from dampening and cooling, to amplifying and warming. Amazon die-back and accelerated melting of the Greenland ice sheet are examples of systems that can rapidly go from cooling sinks to warming sources. This means we cannot contend ourselves to look at mean values only, we must factor in non-linear high-end risks. Key is to do the math of disaster, in order to avoid it." "There ...

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