EFSAS Study
In the context of Chinese expansionism and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), these prophetic words contain an undeniable truth; the Indian Ocean has become a scene of potential international confrontation. A myriad of actors, each with their own interests and agendas to defend, are stationed in the Indian Ocean and one of the most influential of these actors is China, which has set a strategic foot in 'India's Ocean'. Both China and India are rising Asian giants, which are progressively shifting the global economic centre of gravity towards themselves.
Throughout his brilliant career as a naval strategist, Mahan developed the concept of 'sea power'. Studying the expansionism of the British Empire and contrasting it with 'land powers' such as the French and Russian Empires, Mahan came to the conclusion that the command of the seas was the key to economic security and influence. His notable book, The Influence of Sea Power Upon History (1660-1783), published in 1890, became a guide for the ambitious navies of the time; United States (US), Germany and Japan, and is still being studied by the Chinese and Indian navies today.
Mahan's theory revolved around the correlation between a country's economic power and its ability to secure relay points along maritime economic routes. China and its 'string of pearls' strategy represents this Mahanian line of thought, precisely because the purpose of this strategy is to establish relay points throughout the Indian Ocean in order to protect its maritime trade routes. China, which is not a littoral State of the Indian Ocean, has already invested billions of dollars in Pakistan, the Maldives, Sri Lanka and Myanmar, in order to develop maritime hubs that could ensure its imported supply of energy fuels and raw materials, as well as its exports towards Europe and Africa. If China succeeds in developing this, as it calls it, 'infrastructural project', its strategic, and military presence, in the Indian Ocean will be secured.
Beijing justifies its actions in the Indian Ocean by explaining that these are strategic points of defence against piracy, as well as commercial relays for its growing trade route with Africa. However, China's economic prowess in combination with its military modernisation plans have sparked concerns globally, and notably in India, whose naval officers and strategists are also avid readers of Mahan, that China's commercial ports in the Indian Ocean could potentially be used for military purposes.
The stakes in the Indian Ocean
In order to understand why Mahan found the Indian Ocean of such strategic importance, one must first analyse its geography. The Indian Ocean is the third largest body of water on earth, covering approximately 70 million km2. Unlike the Atlantic and Pacific, the Indian Ocean is a closed ocean, bordered by four continents and thus rendering its access very limited. Its multiple straits are its main access points: the Strait of Bab-el-Manheb connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, the Strait of Hormuz connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, the Strait of Malacca between Malaysia and Indonesia, and finally the Sunda Strait and Lombok Strait in Indonesia. Mahan referred to these straits as "choke points". These narrow straits regulate the incoming and outgoing traffic, and historically have been used to cut off access to trade routes in times of war. For example, when the British Empire was the dominant power in the Indian Ocean, it held control over the Strait of Malacca and the Strait of Bab-el-Manheb. When Russia dispatched a fleet of warships in 1904, during the Russo-Japanese War, Britain prevented it from using the Suez Canal or any port in the Indian Ocean. The Russian fleet was then forced to go around the African continent and through the Indian Ocean. Weakened by the voyage and low on fuel supply and provisions, it subsequently lost the war.
Aside from strategic naval importance, the Indian Ocean has been used for trade for hundreds of years. It became the site of exchange between the East and the West; ancient and rich civilisations bordered its shores, and were able to maintain lucrative maritime trade routes, notably due to the regular and consistent monsoon winds that occur in the Indian Ocean. Today, the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), encompassed by East Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, South East Asia and Australia, is a multifaceted and complex scene. Like in Mahan's time, it is still being navigated for both commercial and military purposes, however the current geopolitical context has upped the stakes.
The regional area of ??the Indian Ocean is estimated to not only contain 55% of the world's oil reserves, but also 40% of gas reserves, 60% of uranium, 80% of diamonds, and 40% of gold. Moreover, the littoral States of the Indian Ocean account for one third of the world's population. Thus, the demographic potential of the region cannot be neglected. In the 21st century, the Indian Ocean is an ocean of hydrocarbons. In 2014, it was estimated that 10 of the States that border the Indian Ocean hold 65% of the world's oil reserves. Furthermore, the Indian Ocean has become a primary location for maritime oil transportation, as more than 80% of crude oil passes through the most important straits of the Indian Ocean. Every day, about 32.2 million barrels of oil and crude oil are transported through the Straits of Hormuz and Malacca. China alone, carries 85% of its oil imports across the Indian Ocean.
The Indian Ocean also contains an impressive number of shipping lines, also known as Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC). SLOCs are maritime passageways between ports and considering that today, over 90% of global trade is sea-borne, these SLOCs are of great geopolitical value as a nation that controls them can either open or cut off their access. As some of the most rapidly growing economies are located in Asia, the number of SLOCs in the Indian Ocean is expected to grow in the next few decades. 13 of the world's busiest ports are in Asia, and as production rises, the need for secure transit routes in the Indian Ocean is greater than ever.
These maritime transit routes are threatened by the active conflict zones that impede the progress and development of the IOR. Its littoral States are battlegrounds of more than a hundred conflicts, according to the Germany-based Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research. It has become heavily militarised, as multiple nations not only engage in these conflicts, but also seek to defend their economic interests from threats linked to conflict, such as piracy and terrorism, in the rest of the IOR. Spill-overs from these conflicts further jeopardize the fragile stability of the Indian Ocean. Some conflicts in East Africa have resulted in failed States, such as Somalia and Yemen, and the consequences of this reality pose worrying instabilities. These instabilities have seen a proliferation of piracy, not only in the waters surrounding Somalia and Yemen but also in the narrow Strait of Malacca, which threatens the 70,000 ships that cross the strait every year. Aside from piracy, the region is marked with terrorist threats and organised crime. Thus, an international effort has been established in order to strengthen the security of SLOCs. Foreign military presence in the Indian Ocean includes military bases belonging to countries such as the US, France, The United Kingdom (UK), India and China. The US' escalating trade war and rocky relationship with China could translate into aggravating the economic rivalry in the Indian Ocean, notably for control of its SLOCs, which are some of the most strategic routes of communication in the world. The multiplicity of various international actors in the Indian Ocean, each with their own military and economic agendas, has set the geopolitical stakes very high. A true balance of powers must be found, where actors are willing to cooperate in order to ensure peace and prosperity for all parties involved. Should a dominant power arise, and in so attain a monopoly over the strategic access points of the Indian Ocean, the risk of a global conflict in the region would be great.